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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 31 Aug 2025

14:00

Venue

Amex Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

26%

Brighton

3.80

25%

Draw

3.99

49%

Manchester City

2.06

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

1 – 2

9.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.09

Brighton xG

Total xG

2.67

1.58

Manchester City xG

26%
25%
49%
BrightonDrawManchester City

3.80

26%

Home win

3.99

25%

Draw

2.06

49%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.89

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

21%

Brighton

4.85

33%

Manchester City

2.99

Win to Nil

5%

Brighton

18.44

16%

Manchester City

6.15

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.9 10.9 8.6 4.5 1.8 0.6
1 7.5 11.9 9.4 5.0 2.0 0.6
2 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3
3 1.5 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.094
λ Away (xG) 1.580
Total xG 2.674
League avg home goals 1.488
League avg away goals 1.210
Brighton attack strength 1.010
Brighton defence strength 1.044
Manchester City attack strength 1.251
Manchester City defence strength 0.728
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40