Brighton vs Fulham Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Brighton at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brighton vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brighton welcome Fulham to Amex Stadium in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 March 2027 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brighton stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Brighton's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fulham have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Brighton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Brighton's 20% BTTS rate and Fulham's 30% (from Brighton's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Fulham have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Brighton.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Jan 2026, ended Brighton 1–2 Fulham — a Fulham win.
Fulham have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Brighton trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Fulham trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brighton 48% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brighton 50% | Fulham 46%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Brighton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.82 xG and Fulham 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 1.476 / defence 0.655 | Fulham attack 0.775 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.163. Brighton carry an above-average attack rating of 1.476 — their 1.82 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Fulham's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Brighton have a tight defence (rating 0.655), which is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Data: built from Brighton's last 48 games and Fulham's last 48.
Result probabilities: Brighton 67% | Draw 22% | Fulham 11%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 1.49 | Draw 4.63 | Fulham 8.77. The model has a clear lean to Brighton (67%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Fulham have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), but Brighton carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Brighton as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brighton's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brighton 20% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Amex Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 March 2027 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 67% | Draw 22% | Fulham 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Brighton 1.82 / Fulham 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 1.476 / def 0.655 | Fulham attack 0.775 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Brighton (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Fulham xG
37%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brighton vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Brighton vs Fulham kick off?
Brighton vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 March 2027 at Amex Stadium.
Where is Brighton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Amex Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Fulham part of?
Brighton vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 67% chance of winning, Fulham a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Brighton and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Brighton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brighton's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Brighton's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brighton's last 48 games and Fulham's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.63
11%
8.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Brighton xG
Total xG
2.41
0.59
Fulham xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
8.77
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
2%
54.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.9 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brighton vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Brighton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Brighton and 0.59 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brighton come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.29 PPG from 48 outings (17W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brighton on 1.56 PPG, Fulham on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brighton's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brighton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brighton are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Brighton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Brighton (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brighton
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Brighton vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Brighton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Fulham have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Fulham away?
Brighton's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.92 PPG; Fulham away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Brighton or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fulham in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Brighton.
Brighton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Brighton
2
Draws
5
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Brighton vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brighton have won 1, Fulham have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 50%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Brighton) and 42% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Brighton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fulham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brighton vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brighton and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brighton's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brighton and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Brighton's recent games and 42% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brighton and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Brighton's recent matches and 54% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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