🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brighton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Brighton 1-3 at American Express Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.50 xG and Crystal Palace 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Crystal Palace attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 40% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 32%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 64%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.36 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Brighton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights