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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Brighton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chelsea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Chelsea 3-0 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.38 xG and Chelsea 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brighton beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chelsea landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Chelsea attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 36% | Draw 30% | Chelsea 34%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 59%, Chelsea 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Chelsea's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.52 PPG, Chelsea 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Brighton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights