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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brentford and Wolves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Brentford and Wolves drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.42 xG and Wolves 0.74 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wolves outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Wolves attack 0.61 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 51% | Draw 31% | Wolves 18%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 55%, Wolves 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brentford arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights