Brentford 0-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brentford and Tottenham meet at Brentford Community Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brentford's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Brentford at Brentford Community Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tottenham (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Tottenham arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brentford, 1 for Tottenham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Tottenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Brentford — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tottenham — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 56% versus Tottenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 56% | Tottenham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.04 xG and Tottenham 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.867 / defence 1.045 | Tottenham attack 1.116 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.345. Data: 33 Brentford games / 32 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 25% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 49%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Tottenham 2.04. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Brentford 40% | Tottenham 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Brentford Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 25% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Brentford 1.04 / Tottenham 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.867 / def 1.045 | Tottenham attack 1.116 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Tottenham xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Tottenham kick off?
Brentford vs Tottenham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Brentford Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Tottenham?
Brentford 0 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Brentford vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Brentford Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Tottenham part of?
Brentford vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 25% chance of winning, Tottenham a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Brentford and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Tottenham?
Record (1 meetings): Brentford 0W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Brentford and Tottenham in?
Brentford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Tottenham (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brentford's attack rating (0.87) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (1.12x) against Brentford's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
25%
3.96
25%
3.96
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.61
1.57
Tottenham xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
18.98
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Brentford and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Brentford and 1.57 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brentford's recent record stands at 10W 6D 16L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 18W 3D 11L across 32 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brentford heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brentford have managed 5W 2D 8L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brentford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.75 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Tottenham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 10W 6D 16L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 18W 3D 11L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.13 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Brentford or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Tottenham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brentford have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brentford
4
Draws
5
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Brentford have won 1, Tottenham have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Brentford 0-0 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 47%, Tottenham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Brentford) and 53% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 33%; Brentford have failed to score in 33% of games; Tottenham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Brentford's recent matches and 40% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brentford vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Brentford's recent games and 53% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Brentford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford and Tottenham finished level at 0-0 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.04 xG and Tottenham 1.57 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tottenham landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Tottenham attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 25% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 49%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 56%, Tottenham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tottenham's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.