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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Brentford 0-2 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.76 xG and Tottenham 1.98 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.24 / defence 1.13 against Tottenham attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 34% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 43%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 69%, Tottenham 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.15 PPG, Tottenham 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights