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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Brentford 0-2 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.82 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.83 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 58% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 14%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 58%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.48 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights