Brentford vs Newcastle – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Brentford's attack rating (1.40) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.42
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.88
1.76
Newcastle xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.83
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
4%
26.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Brentford and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Brentford and 1.76 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.