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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Brentford 0-2 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.99 xG and Liverpool 2.81 xG, a combined 4.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Liverpool landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.38 / defence 1.20 against Liverpool attack 1.55 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 26% | Draw 19% | Liverpool 55%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 71% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 82% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 69%, Liverpool 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Liverpool's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights