Brentford vs Leicester – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brentford's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Leicester's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.00. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.69
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.00
Brentford xG
Total xG
4.59
1.59
Leicester xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.26
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
5%
20.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
1%
116.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are Brentford and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 3.00 expected goals for Brentford and 1.59 for Leicester, a combined total of 4.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.