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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Brentford 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Brentford 2-3 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.63 xG and Fulham 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.22 / defence 1.18 against Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 41% | Draw 24% | Fulham 36%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 64%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.27 PPG, Fulham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights