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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brentford and Everton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Brentford and Everton drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.24 xG and Everton 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Everton attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 34% | Draw 32% | Everton 34%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 55%, Everton 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.48 PPG, Everton 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights