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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brentford and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford and Everton finished level at 1-1 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.40 xG and Everton 1.22 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 41% | Draw 26% | Everton 33%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 67%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.19 PPG, Everton 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights