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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brentford and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford and Crystal Palace finished level at 2-2 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.80 xG and Crystal Palace 0.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Crystal Palace attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brentford 56% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 19%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 57%, Crystal Palace 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brentford's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brentford 1.45 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights