🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Wolves defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.96 xG and Wolves 0.98 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.01 / defence 0.67 against Wolves attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 60% | Draw 23% | Wolves 18%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Wolves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 65%, Wolves 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Wolves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights