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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and West Ham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and West Ham finished level at 2-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.53 xG and West Ham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.79 against West Ham attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 52% | Draw 27% | West Ham 21%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, West Ham 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights