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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Bournemouth and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.77 xG and West Ham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.75 against West Ham attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, West Ham 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.36 PPG, West Ham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights