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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.55 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.83 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 54% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 20%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.54 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights