Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 42%, yet in-form Newcastle provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bournemouth vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Newcastle travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 4W 3D 3L at Vitality Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Newcastle — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Newcastle are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bournemouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Newcastle in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bournemouth have won 1, Newcastle 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Newcastle trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and Newcastle 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 69% | Newcastle 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.77 xG and Newcastle 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.033 / defence 1.001 | Newcastle attack 1.153 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.403. Data: 39 Bournemouth games / 39 Newcastle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 36%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Newcastle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Newcastle (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Newcastle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Bournemouth 1.77 / Newcastle 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.033 / def 1.001 | Newcastle attack 1.153 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Newcastle xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Newcastle kick off?
Bournemouth vs Newcastle kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Bournemouth vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Newcastle part of?
Bournemouth vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 42% chance of winning, Newcastle a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bournemouth and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
Record (4 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 3 | Newcastle 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Newcastle in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Newcastle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.03) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.42
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.39
1.62
Newcastle xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.62 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 13W 10D 16L from 39 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 14L across 39 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.26 PPG, Newcastle on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newcastle's away record stands at 6W 2D 11L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 2.21 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 19W 6D 14L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Newcastle away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.42 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bournemouth
5
Draws
0
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 3, Newcastle have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Newcastle?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 53%, Newcastle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Bournemouth and 74% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Newcastle in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bournemouth's games and 63% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Bournemouth's matches and 74% of Newcastle's.
Bournemouth and Newcastle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Bournemouth and Newcastle drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.77 xG and Newcastle 1.62 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Newcastle attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 36%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 69%, Newcastle 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.26 PPG, Newcastle 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.