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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Bournemouth 0-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.42 xG and Liverpool 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.12 / defence 0.60 against Liverpool attack 1.45 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 38% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 67%, Liverpool 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Liverpool's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights