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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ipswich defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Bournemouth 1-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.63 xG and Ipswich 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Ipswich attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 54% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 21%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.37 PPG, Ipswich 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights