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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Fulham 3-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.44 xG and Fulham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.89 / defence 0.75 against Fulham attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 51% | Draw 28% | Fulham 21%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 54%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.52 PPG, Fulham 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights