Bournemouth 0-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Crystal Palace at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bournemouth) versus 1.40 (Crystal Palace). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 42% versus Crystal Palace 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 49% | Crystal Palace 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.838 / defence 1.013 | Crystal Palace attack 0.811 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.263. Data: 16 Bournemouth games / 53 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 41% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 30%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Crystal Palace 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 20% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 41% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Bournemouth 1.25 / Crystal Palace 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.838 / def 1.013 | Crystal Palace attack 0.811 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Crystal Palace xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Bournemouth 0 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace part of?
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 41% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bournemouth and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.84x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.51
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.29
1.04
Crystal Palace xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.04 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 23W 14D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 16W 19D 18L from 53 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.57 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.23 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 16W 19D 18L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Crystal Palace away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.77 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bournemouth
3
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 3, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 42%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bournemouth) and 50% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 27% of games; Crystal Palace in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bournemouth's recent games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Bournemouth 0-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.04 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Crystal Palace outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Crystal Palace attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 41% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 30%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 49%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.57 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.