Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Brighton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brighton make the trip to Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 6W 2D 2L at Vitality Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Brighton have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brighton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brighton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bournemouth, 3 for Brighton and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Brighton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 61% and Brighton 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 65% | Brighton 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.65 xG and Brighton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.107 / defence 0.828 | Brighton attack 1.086 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.345. Data: 49 Bournemouth games / 49 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Brighton 26%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Brighton 3.85. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Brighton 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Brighton 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Bournemouth 1.65 / Brighton 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.107 / def 0.828 | Brighton attack 1.086 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Brighton xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Brighton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Bournemouth 1 - 2 Brighton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Brighton part of?
Bournemouth vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 46% chance of winning, Brighton a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bournemouth and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Brighton?
Record (4 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Brighton 3W.
What form are Bournemouth and Brighton in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Brighton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Brighton's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Brighton's attack (1.09x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.60
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.86
1.21
Brighton xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.21 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 17W 12D 20L from 49 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 16L across 49 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.37 for Brighton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 10W 7D 7L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.51 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Brighton in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Brighton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Brighton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 17W 12D 20L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Brighton have gone 17W 16D 16L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Brighton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Brighton away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brighton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
1
Draws
5
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Brighton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Brighton have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Brighton 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 54%, Brighton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Bournemouth and 62% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bournemouth's games and 62% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bournemouth's matches and 62% of Brighton's.
Shock result as Brighton defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton beat Bournemouth 1-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.65 xG and Brighton 1.21 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Brighton attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Brighton 26%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Brighton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 65%, Brighton 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Brighton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.29 PPG, Brighton 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.