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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Sat 5 Apr 2025

17:30

Venue

Villa Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Aston Villa Win

48%

Aston Villa

2.10

22%

Draw

4.63

31%

Nottingham Forest

3.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

1 – 2

7.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.99

Aston Villa xG

Total xG

3.57

1.58

Nottingham Forest xG

48%
22%
31%
Aston VillaDrawNottingham Forest

2.10

48%

Home win

4.63

22%

Draw

3.24

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

69%

Over 2.5

1.45

31%

Under 2.5

3.23

48%

Over 3.5

2.08

52%

Under 3.5

1.92

29%

Over 4.5

3.45

71%

Under 4.5

1.41

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

69%

BTTS Yes

1.46

31%

BTTS No

3.18

Clean Sheet

21%

Aston Villa

4.85

14%

Nottingham Forest

7.32

Win to Nil

10%

Aston Villa

10.21

4%

Nottingham Forest

23.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.8 4.4 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2
1 5.6 8.9 7.0 3.7 1.5 0.5
2 5.6 8.8 7.0 3.7 1.4 0.5
3 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3
4 1.8 2.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.991
λ Away (xG) 1.579
Total xG 3.570
League avg home goals 1.418
League avg away goals 1.437
Aston Villa attack strength 1.092
Aston Villa defence strength 0.924
Nottingham Forest attack strength 1.189
Nottingham Forest defence strength 1.286
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 68 / 68