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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Aston Villa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 1, as Aston Villa and Newcastle drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.63 xG and Newcastle 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Newcastle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Newcastle attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 47% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 28%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 63%, Newcastle 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Newcastle's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.74 PPG, Newcastle 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights