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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Aston Villa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Newcastle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Newcastle 4-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.48 xG and Newcastle 1.33 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Newcastle attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 41% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 34%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 70%, Newcastle 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Newcastle's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.74 PPG, Newcastle 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights