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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sun 21 Dec 2025

16:30

Venue

Villa Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Aston Villa Win

52%

Aston Villa

1.92

24%

Draw

4.16

24%

Manchester United

4.21

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.79

Aston Villa xG

Total xG

2.92

1.14

Manchester United xG

52%
24%
24%
Aston VillaDrawManchester United

1.92

52%

Home win

4.16

24%

Draw

4.21

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

32%

Aston Villa

3.12

17%

Manchester United

5.97

Win to Nil

17%

Aston Villa

5.97

4%

Manchester United

25.09

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 6.1 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.6 10.9 6.2 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 8.6 9.8 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 5.1 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 2.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.786
λ Away (xG) 1.137
Total xG 2.923
League avg home goals 1.561
League avg away goals 1.291
Aston Villa attack strength 1.063
Aston Villa defence strength 0.708
Manchester United attack strength 1.242
Manchester United defence strength 1.076
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54