Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Sun 26 Oct 2025

14:00

Venue

Villa Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

28%

Aston Villa

3.63

28%

Draw

3.54

44%

Manchester City

2.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.7%

Away win

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.01

Aston Villa xG

Total xG

2.37

1.36

Manchester City xG

28%
28%
44%
Aston VillaDrawManchester City

3.63

28%

Home win

3.54

28%

Draw

2.26

44%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.09

52%

BTTS No

1.91

Clean Sheet

26%

Aston Villa

3.88

36%

Manchester City

2.75

Win to Nil

7%

Aston Villa

14.11

16%

Manchester City

6.23

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3 12.7 8.6 3.9 1.3 0.4
1 9.5 12.9 8.7 3.9 1.3 0.4
2 4.8 6.5 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2
3 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.013
λ Away (xG) 1.357
Total xG 2.370
League avg home goals 1.473
League avg away goals 1.219
Aston Villa attack strength 0.977
Aston Villa defence strength 1.010
Manchester City attack strength 1.102
Manchester City defence strength 0.704
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 46 / 46