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Aston Villa vs Manchester City – Predictions

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sat 21 Dec 2024

12:30

Venue

Villa Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Aston Villa Win

42%

Aston Villa

2.38

27%

Draw

3.70

31%

Manchester City

3.23

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 0

7.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.64

Aston Villa xG

Total xG

3.04

1.39

Manchester City xG

42%
27%
31%
Aston VillaDrawManchester City

2.38

42%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

3.23

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.64

Clean Sheet

25%

Aston Villa

4.02

19%

Manchester City

5.18

Win to Nil

10%

Aston Villa

9.58

6%

Manchester City

16.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 6.7 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.2
1 7.9 11.0 7.6 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 9.0 6.3 2.9 1.0 0.3
3 3.6 5.0 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2
4 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.644
λ Away (xG) 1.392
Total xG 3.036
League avg home goals 1.622
League avg away goals 1.446
Aston Villa attack strength 1.049
Aston Villa defence strength 0.928
Manchester City attack strength 1.037
Manchester City defence strength 0.967
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54