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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crystal Palace run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Aston Villa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 0-3 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 0.94 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Crystal Palace outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Crystal Palace attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 43% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 28%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 60%, Crystal Palace 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.68 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights