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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Aston Villa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Aston Villa 1-4 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.24 xG and Chelsea 1.13 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Chelsea outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.95 / defence 0.74 against Chelsea attack 1.19 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 36% | Draw 33% | Chelsea 31%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chelsea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 56%, Chelsea 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.77 PPG, Chelsea 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights