Aston Villa vs Brentford – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.00) and Brentford's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.50
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.14
Brentford xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.14 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.