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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat West Ham 2-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.86 xG and West Ham 0.99 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. West Ham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 57% | Draw 24% | West Ham 19%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 46%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

West Ham's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights