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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Tottenham 4-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.41 xG and Tottenham 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.19 / defence 0.68 against Tottenham attack 1.38 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 44% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 30%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 43%, Tottenham 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights