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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Newcastle 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Newcastle 1-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.70 xG and Newcastle 1.25 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Newcastle attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 48% | Draw 24% | Newcastle 28%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 54%, Newcastle 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Newcastle's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights