Arsenal vs Hull City – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Hull City in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arsenal's overall Premier League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Emirates Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium.
Hull City (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Hull City have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Arsenal's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Hull City — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 43% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 51% | Hull City 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.79 xG and Hull City 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.233 / defence 0.777 | Hull City attack 0.775 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.171. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Arsenal games / 9 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 63% | Draw 23% | Hull City 14%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arsenal at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 40% | Hull City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Hull City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 63% | Draw 23% | Hull City 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 42% | xG Arsenal 1.79 / Hull City 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.233 / def 0.777 | Hull City attack 0.775 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hull City xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Hull City kick off?
Arsenal vs Hull City is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
Where is Arsenal vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Hull City part of?
Arsenal vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 63% chance of winning, Hull City a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Arsenal and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal and Hull City in?
Arsenal (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.23x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.78x) against Arsenal's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.38
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.50
0.71
Hull City xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
42.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.71 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arsenal's recent record stands at 34W 7D 6L from 47 games, a 2.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 14L across 47 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 19W 2D 2L from 23 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 11W 4D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Hull City in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 34W 7D 6L in their last 47 games (2.32 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Hull City away?
Arsenal's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.57 PPG; Hull City away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Hull City in 32%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 44%, Hull City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Arsenal and 61% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Arsenal's recent matches and 56% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Arsenal's matches and 61% of Hull City's.
Do Arsenal and Hull City tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hull City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.