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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Fulham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Fulham 2-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.53 xG and Fulham 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.13 / defence 0.72 against Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 46% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 52%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Fulham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights