🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Crystal Palace 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.71 xG and Crystal Palace 0.95 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.30 / defence 0.72 against Crystal Palace attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 55% | Draw 25% | Crystal Palace 20%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 44%, Crystal Palace 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights