York vs Grimsby – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates York at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this York vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 28 as York welcome Grimsby to York Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York's home record at York Community Stadium: 5W 2D 0L from 7 League Two appearances (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — York are significantly better at York Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Grimsby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Grimsby have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York 1.30 PPG, Grimsby 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for York, 1 for Grimsby and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 2–5 with Grimsby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
York trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Grimsby trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York 71% and Grimsby 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York 50% | Grimsby 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York 1.73 xG and Grimsby 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York attack 1.222 / defence 0.911 | Grimsby attack 1.198 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Data: 14 York games / 60 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York 47% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 26%. Fair-value odds: York 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Grimsby 3.85. York hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York 57% | Grimsby 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: York Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York 47% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG York 1.73 / Grimsby 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: York attack 1.222 / def 0.911 | Grimsby attack 1.198 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: York (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
York xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Grimsby xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York vs Grimsby kick off?
York vs Grimsby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at York Community Stadium.
Where is York vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at York Community Stadium.
What competition is York vs Grimsby part of?
York vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win York vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives York a 47% chance of winning, Grimsby a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York the favourite.
Will both teams score in York vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both York and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will York vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between York and Grimsby?
Record (1 meetings): York 0W | Draws 0 | Grimsby 1W.
What form are York and Grimsby in?
York (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Grimsby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates York's attack at 1.22x the league average against Grimsby's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus York's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.74
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
York xG
Total xG
2.98
1.25
Grimsby xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are York and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for York and 1.25 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for York vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
York come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 5D 4L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York on 1.43 PPG, Grimsby on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
York's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — York are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grimsby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
York are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York and Grimsby in coming into this match?
York have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York at home or Grimsby away?
York's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York at home: 2.43 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between York and Grimsby runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
York
0
Draws
1
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York and Grimsby?
From 1 meetings on record, York have won 0, Grimsby have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did York and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Grimsby 5-2 York.
Who has won more matches between York and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York 57%, Grimsby 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for York and 71% for Grimsby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Grimsby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York play Grimsby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of York's games and 71% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of York's matches and 71% of Grimsby's.
Do York and Grimsby tend to score early?
York have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →