Wrexham 2-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Mansfield Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wrexham welcome Mansfield Town to STōK Cae Ras in League Two (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Wrexham have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mansfield Town stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Mansfield Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wrexham 1.80 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wrexham, 0 for Mansfield Town and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Wrexham 0–0 Mansfield Town — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mansfield Town trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 51% versus Mansfield Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Mansfield Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.32 xG and Mansfield Town 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.123 / defence 0.770 | Mansfield Town attack 1.400 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack rating of 1.400, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Wrexham have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Mansfield Town's projected output down. Data: built from Wrexham's last 39 games and Mansfield Town's last 85.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 35% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 38%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.88 | Draw 3.69 | Mansfield Town 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wrexham 20% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 41 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 35% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Wrexham 1.32 / Mansfield Town 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.123 / def 0.770 | Mansfield Town attack 1.400 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Mansfield Town xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Wrexham vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Wrexham 2 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Wrexham vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Mansfield Town part of?
Wrexham vs Mansfield Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 35% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wrexham and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wrexham vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.12) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 39 games and Mansfield Town's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.69
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.71
1.39
Mansfield Town xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.39 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wrexham's recent record stands at 20W 10D 9L from 39 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 6L across 39 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.79 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 13W 3D 3L from their last 19 home games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across their last 19 away games, a 1.84 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wrexham are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 2.03 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 64%.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Wrexham (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Wrexham vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 20W 10D 9L in their last 39 games (1.79 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 20W 13D 6L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Mansfield Town away?
Wrexham's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.21 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Wrexham have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Wrexham's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Mansfield Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2025: Mansfield Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Mansfield Town?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 47%, Mansfield Town 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Wrexham and 63% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Wrexham's games and 74% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wrexham and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Wrexham's matches and 63% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Wrexham and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Wrexham's recent matches and 79% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mansfield Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Mansfield Town 2-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.32 xG and Mansfield Town 1.39 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mansfield Town landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.12 / defence 0.77 against Mansfield Town attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 35% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 38%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.79 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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