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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Tranmere 4-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.34 xG and Tranmere 0.90 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Tranmere attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 47% | Draw 28% | Tranmere 25%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 45%, Tranmere 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Tranmere's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights