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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Walsall run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Tranmere 5-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 2.37 xG and Tranmere 0.76 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.29 / defence 0.95 against Tranmere attack 0.67 / defence 1.38, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 73% | Draw 18% | Tranmere 9%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 58%, Tranmere 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights