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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Walsall and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 2.14 xG and Shrewsbury 1.00 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Shrewsbury attack 0.81 / defence 1.46, drawn from 65/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 63% | Draw 20% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 48%, Shrewsbury 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights