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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Walsall defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Salford City 1-0 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.07 xG and Salford City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Salford City attack 1.17 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 30% | Draw 29% | Salford City 41%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Walsall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 50%, Salford City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Salford City's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.66 PPG, Salford City 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights