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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Walsall and Salford City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Walsall and Salford City drew 2-2 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.66 xG and Salford City 1.15 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.52 / defence 1.02 against Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 48% | Draw 27% | Salford City 25%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 59%, Salford City 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.68 PPG, Salford City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights