Walsall 1-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Walsall's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Walsall have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Notts County (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Notts County's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Notts County are 1.20 PPG clear of Walsall over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Walsall edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Walsall 0–0 Notts County — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Walsall — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Notts County — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 51% versus Notts County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 46% | Notts County 46%). Note also that Notts County surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Walsall recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 0.78 xG and Notts County 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.732 / defence 1.063 | Notts County attack 0.988 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.150. Walsall's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Walsall's last 80 games and Notts County's last 80.
Result probabilities: Walsall 24% | Draw 30% | Notts County 46%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 4.18 | Draw 3.34 | Notts County 2.17. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Walsall's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Walsall 40% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 36 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 24% | Draw 30% | Notts County 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Walsall 0.78 / Notts County 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.732 / def 1.063 | Notts County attack 0.988 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Notts County (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Notts County xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Notts County kick off?
Walsall vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Notts County?
Walsall 1 - 2 Notts County.
Where is Walsall vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Notts County part of?
Walsall vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 24% chance of winning, Notts County a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Walsall and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Walsall vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Walsall's attack rating (0.73) and Notts County's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.99x) against Walsall's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 80 games and Notts County's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
24%
4.18
30%
3.34
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Walsall xG
Total xG
1.99
1.21
Notts County xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Walsall and 1.21 for Notts County, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 82 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 37W 22D 23L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Notts County's form line: 38W 19D 25L from 82 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Walsall against 1.62 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 40 home games (19W 9D 12L).
On the road, Notts County have gone 17W 11D 12L from their last 40 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Walsall are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
Walsall (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Walsall vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Notts County in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 37W 22D 23L in their last 82 games (1.62 PPG), while Notts County have gone 38W 19D 25L in their last 82 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Notts County away?
Walsall's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.65 PPG; Notts County away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Walsall or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Notts County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Walsall
1
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Notts County?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 3, Notts County have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Walsall and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Walsall 1-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Notts County?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 62%, Notts County 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Walsall) and 42% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Notts County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Walsall's games and 55% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Walsall and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Walsall's recent games and 42% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Walsall's recent matches and 65% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Walsall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Walsall 1-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 0.78 xG and Notts County 1.21 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Notts County attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 24% | Draw 30% | Notts County 46%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 46%, Notts County 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.62 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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