Walsall 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to Poundland Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Walsall have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Walsall are significantly better at Poundland Bescot Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Notts County (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Notts County's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Walsall. A 0.90 PPG lead over Notts County (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Walsall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Notts County in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Walsall lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Walsall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Walsall — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Notts County — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Walsall 67% and Notts County 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Walsall 60% | Notts County 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.94 xG and Notts County 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.074 / defence 0.829 | Notts County attack 1.135 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.290. Notts County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Walsall games / 42 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 54% | Draw 22% | Notts County 24%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Notts County 4.17. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 70% | Notts County 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 54% | Draw 22% | Notts County 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Walsall 1.94 / Notts County 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.074 / def 0.829 | Notts County attack 1.135 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Walsall (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Notts County xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Notts County kick off?
Walsall vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Notts County?
Walsall 1 - 3 Notts County.
Where is Walsall vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Notts County part of?
Walsall vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 54% chance of winning, Notts County a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Walsall and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Notts County?
Record (1 meetings): Walsall 1W | Draws 0 | Notts County 0W.
What form are Walsall and Notts County in?
Walsall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Walsall's attack rating (1.07) and Notts County's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.14x) against Walsall's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 88/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.53
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Walsall xG
Total xG
3.15
1.22
Notts County xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
3%
29.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Walsall and 1.22 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 17W 11D 14L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Notts County's form line: 16W 7D 19L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Walsall against 1.31 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Walsall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Notts County have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Walsall are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.98 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Notts County in 71%.
Last 42 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Notts County in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Notts County have gone 16W 7D 19L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Notts County away?
Walsall's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.95 PPG; Notts County away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Walsall
1
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Walsall have won 3, Notts County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Walsall 1-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Notts County?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Walsall see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Walsall, 70% for Notts County — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Walsall) and 65% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Walsall's games and 70% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Walsall's matches and 65% of Notts County's.
Do Walsall and Notts County tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Notts County in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Walsall 1-3 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.94 xG and Notts County 1.22 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Walsall fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Notts County outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.07 / defence 0.83 against Notts County attack 1.14 / defence 1.28, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 54% | Draw 22% | Notts County 24%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Notts County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 60%, Notts County 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.48 PPG, Notts County 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.