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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Walsall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Walsall 0-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.00 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 49%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Harrogate Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights